What is Satoshi's Clock?
If Bitcoin grows faster than inflation for long enough, everyday goods eventually cost fewer satoshis than dollars.
Satoshi's Clock counts down to the date when everyday items cost the same number of satoshis as they cost dollars today. A $5 coffee today will one day cost 5 satoshis — because inflation slowly raises prices while Bitcoin's value grows faster.
We track 60 common household items — from eggs to rent to gasoline — each with its own inflation rate from government data (BLS/CPI), and model Bitcoin's growth as a curve that starts fast and gradually slows as the asset matures.
This is an educational tool, not financial advice. Projections involve massive uncertainty.
What would stop parity?
Satoshi's Clock assumes Bitcoin continues to appreciate faster than everyday prices rise. Here's what could break that assumption:
- •Bitcoin growth permanently falls below inflation. If BTC appreciation drops to 2–3% long-term (below even moderate inflation), parity never arrives.
- •A critical protocol flaw. A fundamental vulnerability in Bitcoin's cryptography or consensus mechanism could destroy confidence.
- •Coordinated global regulation. If major economies simultaneously banned Bitcoin ownership and exchange, adoption could stall permanently.
- •Loss of monetary premium. If Bitcoin fails to be widely accepted as a store of value and remains purely speculative, its long-term growth floor could drop to zero.
- •A superior successor. A fundamentally better monetary technology could displace Bitcoin the way Bitcoin aims to displace traditional currencies.
In our bear scenarios (Stagnation, Regulatory Freeze), most items never reach parity. This is by design — we model failure cases, not just success.